Newsletter 98: the impact of techno-optimism and positive-sum thinking

My topic for today is techno-optimism. What is it, and why embrace it?

Techno-optimism is the belief that technology and science will help us solve some of the world's largest problems.

Let me illustrate that by sharing a recent experience.

A week ago, I was invited to speak at must.connect. The event brought together founders working on some of the hardest problems in health.

A few notable examples include. A startup working on enhancing the efficiency of treating previously incurable diseases. Another founder was working towards increasing the accuracy and speed of identifying lung cancer. Other teams tackled the efficiency and success rate of developing new drugs.

While listening to their presentations, I could not help but feel good about the future.

Meeting a group of incredibly smart and accomplished people with strong convictions about the value of what they are building has a way of charging you with a lot of energy.

It kind of gives you a glimpse of how the world might look in the not-so-distant future. We are experiencing breakthroughs in brain-computer interface, gene therapy, neurotechnology, animal-to-human organ transplants, gene synthesis, and many more.

At times, listening to such concepts sounds like pure science fiction. Most likely, many won’t become massive successes. But the fact that some of the brightest people are taking on those problems is just incredible.

My journey to rational optimism

One thing I am very grateful for is pivoting my career from the hospitality sector to tech.

Spending a decade working with startups has been such a rewarding experience. My learning velocity has been incredible. For example, seven years of learnings in the hospitality sector and two academic degrees in the field could not even compare to my first year in tech. In fact, I would go so far as to say that startups are the only way to get a decade of experience compressed in just a couple of years.

You might be wondering why that is.

Well, as a point of departure, working at a fast-growing tech startup, you are surrounded by smart people. Builders who have chosen difficult problems to work on. Entrepreneurs who know that it will take at least a decade to solve those problems. Considering the high odds of failure, you can see why it takes a high talent density to reach success on any level. Of course, to thrive in such an environment, you need to have many qualities, but two stand out in my view:

• Rational optimism — It takes an immense effort to build anything, no matter if that’s a restaurant down the street or software business. Success is not guaranteed, even for the brightest entrepreneurs out there. It will be a tough journey even if you have skills like perseverance, grit, and raw intelligence. Building anything of value takes a ton of effort, so you naturally have to be optimistic about the future. Rational because too much optimism detaches you from reality way too much.

“To be an entrepreneur, you need to be optimistic about the fact that you’re creating something that other people are going to find value in. People who have a pessimistic philosophy tend to have a pessimistic psychology as well. If you’re constantly thinking about all the ways in which the world is going to wreck and ruin, then this has a day-to-day impact on your outlook on everything—the rest of society, your family, and your friends—because you think this world is condemned. You’re going to feel that weight on your shoulders, and that’s going to come through in how you present yourself to the rest of the world.”

Naval, Optimism

• High energy — the process of building a company is long and difficult, so over time, it wears you down. It feels like a rollercoaster. Some days you experience euphoria because of your impact on the world. On others, failure appears to be weeks away. You will burn out if you do not have large reserves of energy.

What’s the bottom line?

When working in tech, you interact with some of the brightest and most purpose-driven individuals. You are experiencing first-hand the growth of their moonshot projects. From a sci-fi-like idea to a million-dollar company, and all the way to creating a positive impact on humanity. The upside is unlimited.

VV @visualizevalue

“All things are difficult before they are easy.” — Chinese Proverb

I am fortunate enough to work with many great investors across APAC. Those organizations frequently invite me to support their portfolios of startups. So I meet many founders and help whenever possible with go-to-market and fundraising advice. In the process, I have the chance to spend time with those founders. But, most importantly, the experience exposes me to the impact they are having. The more time I spend talking to founders, the more I feel positive about what’s to come.

It’s like you can see the future unfolding in front of your eyes.

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Why embrace techno-optimism?

First, we might begin by asking why so many people seem to be pessimistic.

I am sure everyone can think of that one friend. The ever-negative person, quick to point out flaws in every idea, discussion, or situation. The forever pessimist who always pokes holes at everything you say or do.

At times that can be helpful. Pointing out weak points of your reasoning can help you to think through all pitfalls. But offering nonconstructive feedback is unnecessary. Especially when it lacks at least hints of a solution, then such feedback does not bring any value.

Growing up in a working-class family on the outskirts of Sofia, I experienced that quite a bit. It wasn't easy to stay positive about the future. Most people around me were great at finding and highlighting the negative around us. So I built the habit of beating myself down, no matter how well things were going. In fact, I still struggle with that today. My natural reaction is to search for the negative. To never get comfortable.

On second thought, I cannot blame people for embracing pessimism. Our ancestors survived because they were cautiously pessimistic at all times. Venturing into a jungle, believing everything will be alright, could have cost them their lives. Most likely, many of the optimists got eaten by predators. On a very long time horizon, pessimism becomes our natural state of mind.

“When we lived in tribes, if someone took your food, or excluded you, you didn't have anywhere else to go. It was a zero-sum world, which is why today we instinctively feel someone else's gain as our loss.

Then we invented technology: the ability to do more with less. Then we invented markets, which enabled people to acquire resources while simultaneously enriching others.

Suddenly, our world became positive-sum—the more you created for yourself, the more you gave to others.”

Erik Torenberg, The Rise of Positive-Sum Thinking

But modern society has changed a fair bit. It’s a lot safer than we like to think. The world is better than ever before. Even the risks of starting a company have decreased considerably. Venture capital has removed most barriers to launching a business. The worst thing that can happen is damaging your reputation, but you will learn much in return. In fact, many investors prefer second-time founders. That's because of the founders' learnings and networks, which can position them for success in their next venture.

In turn, it is my belief that we need to work against our inherited pessimism. How else can we thrive in a world that steadily gets better?

Take global warming as an example. The costs of renewables are becoming so cheap, so fast. Battery storage capacity is on the rise. AI is taking on climate change. Software has been eating the world for more than a decade, improving the efficiency of our systems and economies in the process.

Now let’s look more broadly at the different challenges humanity is facing. Many great books have been written to highlight how things are getting better. I recommend you to go ahead and read “Factfulness” to understand how, for all its imperfections, the world is in a much better state than we may think. Or perhaps "The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves" to discover how our ceaseless innovation capacity will increase our prosperity and biodiversity. Despite all inevitable disasters along the way.

Then go through “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind,” where the author makes a compelling case of how we live in the best possible period of human history.

Last but not least, read "Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think". That will help you study how we are solving the world’s largest problems with the help of technology and science.

Reading such books will help you build a positive-sum mindset. Then seek out other people who have similar beliefs to truly understand techno-optimism.

And yes, I am sure that for every argument in this essay, you can find a counterargument or an activity around the world that speaks of how bad everything is. But since we cannot be entirely objective in our worldview, I question what kind of mindset you want to have?

Do you prefer to highlight the negative at all times and be pessimistic about what’s to come?

Or would you rather believe in human ingenuity? A belief in science, technology, and progress. A positive-sum mindset, despite the fact we are wired for scarcity.

I would always choose the second one, which has served me well so far.