Newsletter 86: A few short stories
On Bitcoin, ignorance, doing great work, longevity, and the man in the arena.
This week, I am experimenting with a new format — a series of short stories.
At times I have an idea that obsesses my mind, so I write about it. But quite often, too many thoughts are racing for attention. When that happens, it’s hard to pick a winner. So this week, I am sharing a few unrelated topics that have been top of mind for me.
Bitcoin and failing to act
In 2014, I attended a startup conference in Copenhagen, where I got introduced to Bitcoin for the first time.
A well-respected Danish investor walked on stage and captivated the audience with a story about failures. The whole venue was packed, and his talk became the event's highlight.
The speaker explained how he was fortunate enough to have exposure to companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook throughout the presentation. Yet, he always found a reason not to invest. In hindsight, those startups are obvious winners, but that was not so clear at the time. Back then, the founders seemed too young, too rebellious, the technology was not proven yet, or the market size was questionable. Of course, it goes without saying how the speaker regretted those decisions (pause for dramatic effect). Then his narrative changed, and the presentation moved to what is Bitcoin. As I am trying to recall his exact words, the following comes to mind:
“In my career, I missed so many amazing opportunities but this time I am not going to make the same mistake. Bitcoin is the next big thing.”
Looking back, the whole presentation was well prepared. The speaker was clearly a credible person. He had a great career and eloquent storytelling skills. Until today, I can recall some of his slides and their impression on me. Despite all that, I did not do the most crucial thing — act on his advice. Instead of buying bitcoin, I brushed off his message and returned to my daily routine.
I am often reminded of that story. It’s an important lesson not just to listen but also to act on good advice. Since then, I have made a lot of effort to become an action-biased person. I think that applies to most people. Everyone can benefit from a greater bias towards action. The faster you move, the more things you can try. The more things you try, the more likely you will find something that works.
After all, the price of Bitcoin at the time was ~$320, which would have resulted in a more than 12,000% return today.
Work in fields of which you are totally ignorant
We are taught from an early age to specialize. Our parents frequently remind us of the importance of picking a profession and sticking with it. Universities are designed to force a choice of specialization as soon as you graduate high school. But, most importantly, the labor market rewards specialists a fair bit more than generalists.
Yet, I have always done the opposite. If you look at my career, it will look messy as hell. I started in the hospitality sector by working as a waiter for about seven years. Later, I pivoted to tech, exploring industries like travel, real estate, professional services, and healthcare. Initially, those decisions were driven by ignorance. I simply did not have a plan. Instead, I embraced any opportunity that came my way. Over time, I started seeing the value of adding randomness to my journey.
Looking back, my generalist’s journey has been nothing short of rewarding. It helped me explore various fields while traveling half the world. The broader my experience got, the more valuable I became. Whereas specialists outperformed me in their field, I could see the big picture better. It felt like a puzzle was being completed in front of my eyes. Today, I often choose to work in a new field where I am pretty ignorant. That helps me solve problems from first principles while learning and maintaining humility.
"I strongly believe that the only way to encourage innovation is to give it to the young. The young have a great advantage in that they are ignorant. Because I think ignorance in science is very important. If you’re like me and you know too much you can’t try new things. I always work in fields of which I’m totally ignorant."
Biologist and Nobel Prize winner Sydney Brenner
Do great work. The results will follow.
"I quit my job on August 15, 1899, and went into the automobile business...
The most surprising feature of business as it was conducted was the large attention given to finance and the small attention to service. That seemed to me to be reversing the natural process which is that the money should come as the result of work and not before the work...
My idea was then and still is that if a man did his work well, the price he would get for that work—the profits and all financial matters—would care for themselves and that a business ought to start small and build itself up and out of its earnings."
Henry Ford, founder of Ford Motor Company
More than a century later, the quote still rings true. Unfortunately, a lot of entrepreneurs try to extract value too soon. I have seen that happen again and again, especially in developing markets. At the same time, my experience has taught me how the opposite is true. Focus on the user/client, and obsess over their needs. Over time the profits would care for themselves.
On longevity
“Think of the body as a car. If you don't service a car, it accumulates damage over time. Eventually, that damage becomes so pervasive that the car will break down. The human body, though much more complicated, is analogous to a car in the sense that we're made up of trillions of cells. Just by being alive, through the wear and tear of everyday life, we accumulate damage, and that damage ultimately kills us. This process is the process we call aging.”
”When we think about health, we often neglect the fact that aging is such a crucial part of health. If you're a healthy 70-year-old, you're never going to be as healthy as a healthy 20-year-old because your body has accumulated a lot of damage. Even if you're in the top 99th percentile for a 70-year-old in terms of your health, you're still likely to be less healthy than the 50th percentile 20-year-old because you've accumulated a lot of damage.”
Erik Torenberg, Co-founder of OnDeck
To extend our lifespan and quality of life, we need to invest in building daily habits. We can all eat better, exercise more, get enough sleep, and eliminate things that cause us harm. Do not wait for the car to break. The most important battles must be fought daily. Build good habits today to enjoy a long and smooth drive.
The man in the arena
Earlier in April, Elon Musk started talking about acquiring Twitter. Fast forward to today, and Twitter’s board has agreed on a deal where Musk will spend $44b to take the company private.
The outcome of that has been a massive debate on whether that’s okay. A lot of people are accusing Musk of wasting resources. The prevailing argument is that he should have spent his money on more worthy causes.
The whole debate reminds me of the infamous speech given by Theodore Roosevelt on April 23rd, 1910 — “The Man in the Arena.”
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."
Elon Musk is arguably the most outstanding entrepreneur of all time. If you feel that sounds like hyperbole, consider his track record:
Tesla: $1+ trillion valuation
SpaceX: $100+ billion valuation
PayPal: $100+ billion valuation
The Boring Company: $5.6 billion valuation
Solar City: $2.6 billion valuation
Neuralink: ~ $1 billion valuation
Each company addresses some of the world’s most significant problems, from global warming to making humanity an interplanetary species.
So my perspective is pretty simple. Go make $44b and spend it on what you deem more worthy. I do not see the value in a “zero-sum” attitude. Humanity’s history is full of examples where big problems looked impossible to solve, but then we found a way out. Problems only appear unsolvable within a specific perspective. Change your point of view, or create another frame, then the problem may disappear, and in its place, we will find opportunities.
Musk is obviously smart and capable. Let him spend his money the way he sees fit. Instead, let’s embrace rational optimism. Elon can buy Twitter, AND humanity will still be able to solve some of the biggest problems of our time. It’s not one or the other.
“No one should be shocked when people who think about the world in unique ways you like also think about the world in unique ways you don’t like. Unique minds have to be accepted as a full package.”
Morgan Housel
